2026 Private Credit Outlook

Macro analysis, market trends, and Percent's perspective on where private credit is headed

If 2025 was the year private credit gained mass acceptance, 2026 will be the year of precision. The "easy money" era is over. As we enter a new cycle defined by shifting rate policies, AI-driven infrastructure needs, and a bifurcated consumer economy, the winning strategy requires more than just showing up.

In this comprehensive outlook, Percent combines independent macro analysis with proprietary insights to answer the critical question: Where is the alpha now?

What You Will Learn:

• The End of the Illiquidity Premium: Why liquidity is no longer a "nice to have" but a requirement for the modern portfolio.
• The AI Correlation Shock: The underappreciated systemic risk hiding in algorithmic underwriting models.
• Asset-Based Finance (ABF) vs. Direct Lending: Why the smart money is moving toward collateralized, shorter-duration structures.
• The Consumer Divide: How to navigate the widening gap between prime resilience and subprime stress.
• Technological Sobriety: Why Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS) and tokenization hype are facing a reality check.

Featured Voices:

• Tim Hall: 30-year credit market veteran providing independent macro analysis.
• Percent Leadership: Strategic perspectives from the team building the infrastructure for the future of private credit.