# 2026 Private Credit Outlook

_Macro analysis, market trends, and Percent's perspective on where private credit is headed_

If 2025 was the year private credit gained mass acceptance, 2026 will be the year of precision. The "easy money" era is over. As we enter a new cycle defined by shifting rate policies, AI-driven infrastructure needs, and a bifurcated consumer economy, the winning strategy requires more than just showing up.

In this comprehensive outlook, Percent combines independent macro analysis with proprietary insights to answer the critical question: **Where is the alpha now?**

**What You Will Learn:**

- **The End of the Illiquidity Premium:** Why liquidity is no longer a "nice to have" but a requirement for the modern portfolio.
- **The AI Correlation Shock:** The underappreciated systemic risk hiding in algorithmic underwriting models.
- **Asset-Based Finance (ABF) vs. Direct Lending:** Why the smart money is moving toward collateralized, shorter-duration structures.
- **The Consumer Divide:** How to navigate the widening gap between prime resilience and subprime stress.
- **Technological Sobriety:** Why Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS) and tokenization hype are facing a reality check.

**Featured Voices:**

- **Tim Hall:** 30-year credit market veteran providing independent macro analysis.
- **Percent Leadership:** Strategic perspectives from the team building the infrastructure for the future of private credit.